Arsenal Correct Score Stats: How the Scorelines Changed by Era
Arsenal's league scorelines across 798 Premier League matches: which results recur, how each era reshaped them, and where home and away pull apart.
- Market
- Correct Score
- On file
- Arsenal Premier League matches, 2005/06–2025/26: 798 matches in 21 seasons
- Question
- Which correct scores does Arsenal land most often, and how has that changed across three seven-season eras?
- E110.4%1-0 win: most common score
- E2798Premier League matches analysed
- E330.7%Arsenal matches won to nil
- E416.9%Arsenal wins by three or more goals
Correct Score punishes vague thinking, so before Arsenal play I want to know which scorelines the club actually produces, not which ones feel likely. Files like this sit underneath my correct score predictions today, and this one covers Arsenal across 798 Premier League matches in 21 seasons, with every score written Arsenal's goals first.
The headline answer is modest. A 1-0 win is Arsenal's most common score at 10.4%, but the leading scores sit close together, and the top spot has changed in each of the three seven-season eras. Arsenal won 56.4% of these matches against an average priced win chance of 55.2%, so the market has read the club broadly correctly. The detail sits underneath that headline.
Exhibit AA 1-0 win heads a tightly bunched top four
The 1-0 win landed in 83 of 798 matches, which is 10.4% and fair odds of 9.61. Close behind are the 2-0 win at 9.5% (fair odds 10.50), the 1-1 draw at 9.3% (fair odds 10.78) and the 2-1 win at 9%. Four scores sitting this close together tells me Arsenal rarely have one dominant scoreline. Instead there's a cluster of controlled, low-margin outcomes.
The ten scores on the chart cover 73.9% of matches, and the other 26.1% is spread across 30 further scorelines. Note the shape of the list as well. Wins to nil, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0, all feature, and Arsenal won to nil in 30.7% of all matches overall.
The ten scores shown cover 73.9% of matches.
View the data: arsenal's most common league scores
| Share of 798 Premier League matches, Arsenal's goals first | |
|---|---|
| 1-0 win | 10.4% |
| 2-0 win | 9.5% |
| 1-1 draw | 9.3% |
| 2-1 win | 9.0% |
| 3-1 win | 6.8% |
| 3-0 win | 6.3% |
| 1-2 defeat | 6.3% |
| 0-0 draw | 6.1% |
| 2-2 draw | 5.3% |
| 0-1 defeat | 5.0% |
My one real caveat applies to everything that follows. Single scorelines are rare events, so a share near 10% can drift by a couple of points either way purely through chance. The data also holds no actual correct-score prices, so fair odds are a yardstick for value, not a record of returns.
Exhibit BEach seven-season era crowned a different top score
Split into three blocks of 266 matches, the leading score changes every time. In 2005/06–2011/12 it was the 1-1 draw at 11.3%, and draws overall ran at 24.4%. In 2012/13–2018/19 the 2-0 win took over at 12.8%. In 2019/20–2025/26 it is the 1-0 win at 12.0%, with the 2-1 win second at 9.0%.
The slower columns matter more to me than the top-score column. Wins to nil climbed era by era, from 29.7% to 30.1% to 32.3%. Wins by three or more fell in the same steps, from 18.4% to 16.9% to 15.4%. Taken over the full spans, the recent Arsenal looks tighter and more economical than the earlier one.
| Era | Matches | Top score | Second | Won to nil | Won by 3+ | Draws |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2011/12 | 266 | 1-1 · 11.3% | 1-0 · 9.8% | 29.7% | 18.4% | 24.4% |
| 2012/13–2018/19 | 266 | 2-0 · 12.8% | 1-0 · 9.4% | 30.1% | 16.9% | 21.1% |
| 2019/20–2025/26 | 266 | 1-0 · 12.0% | 2-1 · 9.0% | 32.3% | 15.4% | 21.1% |
Exhibit CThe latest three-season block hit highs on every win type
The era averages hide a dip and a sharp recovery. The 17/18–19/20 block was the low point: wins to nil fell to 23.7% and wins by three or more to 12.3%. The latest block, 23/24–25/26, sets the high on all three lines. Wins to nil reached 39.5%, one-goal wins 29.8% and wins by three or more 20.2%.
That explains why the third era's thrashing rate looks low. The weak spell at the start of that window drags the average down, even though the most recent Arsenal have produced big wins more often than any other block. Each point on this chart rests on only 114 matches, so I read these as broad shifts rather than precise rates.
114–114 matches per block.
View the data: how arsenal win: three-season blocks
| Won to nil | Won by one goal | Won by 3+ goals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06–07/08 | 31.6% | 21.1% | 17.5% |
| 08/09–10/11 | 28.9% | 16.7% | 19.3% |
| 11/12–13/14 | 30.7% | 23.7% | 16.7% |
| 14/15–16/17 | 31.6% | 21.1% | 18.4% |
| 17/18–19/20 | 23.7% | 19.3% | 12.3% |
| 20/21–22/23 | 28.9% | 21.1% | 14.0% |
| 23/24–25/26 | 39.5% | 29.8% | 20.2% |
For a correct-score bettor, the practical point is that recent Arsenal are winning clean more often while still producing heavy wins. Both 1-0 and the 3-0 type of scoreline deserve attention, rather than just one end of the spread.
Exhibit DThe 2-0 win is largely a home score
Venue splits the picture clearly. At home the most common score is a 2-0 win at 12.3% of 399 matches. Away it falls to 6.8%, the widest gap among the main scores at +5.5 points. The 1-0 win travels much better, and on the road it becomes Arsenal's top score at 10.8%.
Defence explains much of this. Arsenal kept clean sheets in 42.1% of home matches and 31.6% of away matches. The 1-2 defeat shows the other side: 15 at home against 35 away. Away from home the losing scorelines move far up the list.
View the data: arsenal scores at home and away
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 win (40 home · 43 away) | 10.0% | 10.8% |
| 2-0 win (49 home · 27 away) | 12.3% | 6.8% |
| 1-1 draw (34 home · 40 away) | 8.5% | 10.0% |
| 2-1 win (43 home · 29 away) | 10.8% | 7.3% |
| 3-1 win (32 home · 22 away) | 8.0% | 5.5% |
| 3-0 win (32 home · 18 away) | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| 1-2 defeat (15 home · 35 away) | 3.8% | 8.8% |
| 0-0 draw (24 home · 25 away) | 6.0% | 6.3% |
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Start from 1-0
A 1-0 win is the most common Arsenal score overall at 10.4%, with fair odds of 9.61. Treat that as the baseline price any offer has to beat.
- Split home from away
Lean towards 2-0 at home, where it runs at 12.3%. Away from home it drops to 6.8% and the 1-0 win takes over at 10.8%.
- Weight the recent block
In 23/24–25/26 Arsenal won to nil in 39.5% of matches and by three or more in 20.2%, the highs of the study. Recent form deserves more weight than long era averages.
Questions bettors ask
What is Arsenal's most common correct score?
A 1-0 win, which landed in 83 of 798 Premier League matches (10.4%). That works out at fair odds of 9.61.
How often do Arsenal win to nil?
Across all 798 matches Arsenal won to nil 30.7% of the time. In the most recent three-season block, 23/24–25/26, that rose to 39.5%.
Do Arsenal score differently at home and away?
Yes. The 2-0 win covers 12.3% of home matches but only 6.8% away, and clean sheets drop from 42.1% at home to 31.6% on the road.
I'm Isla Hartwell, and I specialise in Correct Score markets, where you can't hide behind a result and actually have to picture how the match plays out.
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