Sevilla 1X2 Stats: Strong at Home, Costly to Back Away
Sevilla have been one of La Liga's strongest home sides for two decades. Away from home, the price has asked for more than the results delivered.
- Market
- 1X2
- On file
- Sevilla's La Liga matches with pre-match 1X2 prices, 2005/06–2025/26, 760 matches (2006/07 missing from the data)
- Question
- How different are Sevilla's home and away results in La Liga, and which 1X2 outcome has paid in their games?
- E156.6%Home win rate (priced 52.5%)
- E232.9%Away win rate (priced 34.4%)
- E3+3.2%Return backing Sevilla at home
- E4−17.4%Return backing Sevilla away
Sevilla are a club the 1X2 market thinks it knows well, and over 760 priced La Liga matches it mostly does. The prices gave them an average 43.5% chance of winning, and they won 44.7%. That headline hides a split worth a bettor's attention, because the home and away pictures point in opposite directions.
At home, backing Sevilla on flat stakes returned +3.2% per bet. Away, the same habit returned −17.4%. For match-by-match calls, see my today's 1X2 tips page. This file is the background I check first whenever Sevilla are on the coupon, and it covers venue, outcome returns, opponent strength and how the club has changed over time.
Exhibit ASevilla win at home far more than the average side
Sevilla won 56.6% of their 380 home league matches, drew 20.8% and lost 22.6%. Across the same seasons, other La Liga home sides won 46.3%, so Sevilla have been a clearly stronger home team than the typical host. Away they won 32.9%, drew 25.0% and lost 42.1%. That still beats the 28.0% won by other away sides, but the gap over the league is much smaller on the road.
League rows: every other La Liga side in the same seasons (7,220 matches).
View the data: sevilla home and away vs the league
| Win | Draw | Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla at home | 56.6% | 20.8% | 22.6% |
| La Liga home sides | 46.3% | 25.1% | 28.6% |
| Sevilla away | 32.9% | 25.0% | 42.1% |
| La Liga away sides | 28.0% | 24.9% | 47.1% |
Draws are the other thing I notice. Sevilla's games ended level 22.9% of the time against a priced 25.9%, while other La Liga matches in those seasons were drawn 25.0% of the time. Their fixtures have produced a winner a little more often than the market expected.
Exhibit BBacking Sevilla paid at home and cost heavily away
This chart shows the flat-stake return on each outcome at the standard price. At Sevilla's home games, backing Sevilla returned +3.2%, the draw −19.9% and the visitors −9.7%. On the road it flips: Sevilla returned −17.4%, the draw −13.9% and the home side +0.7%.
In other words, the market has been slightly too cautious about Sevilla at home and too generous about them away. Only two cells finish above zero, and one of them is opposing Sevilla.
View the data: which 1x2 outcome paid in sevilla games?
| Sevilla at home | Sevilla away | |
|---|---|---|
| Sevilla to win | +3.2% | −17.4% |
| The draw | −19.9% | −13.9% |
| The opponent | −9.7% | +0.7% |
Across every match, backing Sevilla returned −7.1% at the standard price and −2.4% at the best price, while backing every other La Liga favourite returned −1.9%. The gap between standard and best price matters here. My main caveat: these are past returns at quoted prices, not a forecast, and squads, coaches and the way prices are set have all shifted over two decades.
Exhibit CThe market undersold Sevilla against weaker teams, not elite ones
Here Sevilla's results are split by the opponent's final table third, with the priced win chance against the actual win rate. Against bottom-third sides they were priced at 61.4% at home and won 65.9%, and priced at 42.6% away and won 47.8%. Against middle-third sides at home they were priced at 56.0% and won 61.7%.
The weak spot is the strongest opposition away from home: priced at 21.1%, actual wins 13.8% across 109 matches. Middle-third trips also fell short, priced at 36.9% against 33.1% won. Top-third games at home sat close to fair, priced at 37.0% and won 38.5%.
View the data: sevilla vs strong and weak sides: priced vs won
| Priced | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top third – home (109 matches) | 37.0% | 38.5% | ±9.1 |
| Top third – away (109 matches) | 21.1% | 13.8% | ±6.5 |
| Middle third – home (133 matches) | 56.0% | 61.7% | ±8.3 |
| Middle third – away (133 matches) | 36.9% | 33.1% | ±8 |
| Bottom third – home (138 matches) | 61.4% | 65.9% | ±7.9 |
| Bottom third – away (138 matches) | 42.6% | 47.8% | ±8.3 |
Fair odds are simply 1 divided by how often something happened, so a lower win rate than the price implies means the quoted odds were too short. Each row rests on over 100 matches, but the ranges are still wide, so I treat these as leanings rather than settled facts.
Exhibit DSevilla's value has faded across three eras
The first block, 2005/06–2011/12, was the best for backers: priced to win 44.9%, won 48.2%, return +0.1% across 228 matches. In 2012/13–2018/19 they still won 46.6% against a priced 45.3%, yet the return slipped to −8.9%.
The latest block, 2019/20–2025/26, is a different Sevilla. The median win price drifted out to 2.33, they won 39.8% against a priced 40.4%, drew 27.4% and returned −11.4%. The market has adjusted to a weaker side, but the draws have climbed too.
| Seasons | Matches | Median price | Priced | Won | Drew | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2011/12 | 228 | 2.10 | 44.9% | 48.2% | 18.9% | +0.1% |
| 2012/13–2018/19 | 266 | 2.08 | 45.3% | 46.6% | 21.8% | −8.9% |
| 2019/20–2025/26 | 266 | 2.33 | 40.4% | 39.8% | 27.4% | −11.4% |
That matters for how I read everything above. The long-run home edge was built partly in stronger years, so I weigh the recent block more heavily before trusting it.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Favour Sevilla at home
Their home record of 56.6% wins and a +3.2% return is the only Sevilla-backing angle that has paid over the full sample. Weigh it against the weaker recent era before staking.
- Avoid short away prices
Backing Sevilla away returned −17.4%, and against top-third hosts they won 13.8% when priced at 21.1%. If anything, the home side has been the side worth a look.
- Shop for the price
Backing Sevilla everywhere returned −7.1% at the standard price but −2.4% at the best price. On a club this widely followed, the quote you take changes the answer.
Questions bettors ask
How good are Sevilla at home in La Liga?
Sevilla won 56.6% of 380 home league matches, against 46.3% for other La Liga home sides in the same seasons. Backing them at home on flat stakes returned +3.2% per bet.
Is it profitable to back Sevilla away from home?
Not historically. Backing Sevilla away returned −17.4% per bet at the standard price, and they won 32.9% of away games against a priced 34.4%.
Do Sevilla draw a lot of games?
Overall, fewer than priced: 22.9% against a priced 25.9%. The latest era is the exception, with draws rising to 27.4% in 2019/20–2025/26.
I'm Priya Ellison, a football betting writer focused on 1X2 markets, chasing the gaps between the prices on the board and what actually plays out on the pitch.
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