Tottenham Over/Under Stats: The Spurs Goals Trend Over 21 Seasons
Twenty-one seasons of Spurs league matches show overs landing more often than priced, a gap that has widened in the latest era and is largest away from home.
- Market
- Over/Under
- On file
- Tottenham: 798 Premier League matches, 2005/06โ2025/26 (21 seasons); league comparison from 7,980 Premier League matches in the same seasons
- Question
- How often do Tottenham league matches go over 2.5 goals, how has that changed across three eras, and has the market kept up?
- E156.9%of 798 Tottenham matches went over 2.5
- E253.9%over 2.5 chance priced by the market
- E3+0.2%return backing every over 2.5
- E4โ11.1%return backing every under 2.5
When Tottenham play, how often do three or more goals arrive, and has the market been charging a fair price for that? I built this file to answer both questions from 798 Premier League matches between 2005/06 and 2025/26. It sits alongside my other over/under tips, but it is written for one club, so you can open it before any Spurs league fixture and check the base rates first.
The headline answer is simple. 56.9% of Tottenham matches went over 2.5, while the margin-free market price implied 53.9%. Backing every over at the main price returned +0.2%, roughly breaking even, but backing every under returned โ11.1%. The over/under split is not where the edge sits. The bigger story is how the over rate has climbed through three eras, and how the away fixtures carry most of the mispricing.
Exhibit ASpurs overs beat the league in most seasons
The line chart tracks the share of Tottenham league matches with three or more goals each season, against the price and the Premier League rate. The range is wide. The low was 2005/06 at 36.8% and the high was 2023/24 at 78.9%, when the market chased the trend and still fell short.
The detail I care about most is consistency. Tottenham matches beat the Premier League over 2.5 rate in 14 of 21 seasons, and the over landed more often than priced in 13 of 21. That is not every year, but it is a clear lean in one direction.
One season = 30-38 matches, so single seasons swing widely.
View the data: tottenham over 2.5 rate, season by season
| Tottenham matches | Tottenham priced | Premier League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 36.8% | 45.3% | 45.0% |
| 2006/07 | 57.9% | 46.1% | 46.8% |
| 2007/08 | 55.3% | 51.6% | 45.0% |
| 2008/09 | 47.4% | 49.8% | 47.9% |
| 2009/10 | 57.9% | 52.7% | 52.6% |
| 2010/11 | 50.0% | 51.9% | 54.2% |
| 2011/12 | 52.6% | 54.6% | 53.7% |
| 2012/13 | 65.8% | 54.6% | 55.8% |
| 2013/14 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| 2014/15 | 71.1% | 52.7% | 48.4% |
| 2015/16 | 55.3% | 51.6% | 52.9% |
| 2016/17 | 52.6% | 53.8% | 54.2% |
| 2017/18 | 44.7% | 57.1% | 51.1% |
| 2018/19 | 57.9% | 56.5% | 53.7% |
| 2019/20 | 60.5% | 55.8% | 52.1% |
| 2020/21 | 55.3% | 53.3% | 50.0% |
| 2021/22 | 57.9% | 52.6% | 53.9% |
| 2022/23 | 60.5% | 54.4% | 52.6% |
| 2023/24 | 78.9% | 65.2% | 64.7% |
| 2024/25 | 63.2% | 66.7% | 56.6% |
| 2025/26 | 63.2% | 54.2% | 55.0% |
In 2025/26 Spurs matches went over 63.2% of the time against 54.2% priced, with the league at 55.0%. A single season is a small sample, though, so I read any one point on this chart as noise unless the seasons either side of it agree.
Exhibit BEach era pushed the Spurs over rate higher
Splitting the record into three equal blocks of 266 matches removes much of the single-season noise. From 2005/06โ2011/12 Tottenham matches went over 51.1% of the time against 50.3% priced, close to fair, and both sides of the market lost money. From 2012/13โ2018/19 the rate rose to 56.8% against 54.1% priced, and the over returned +1.1%.
The latest era, 2019/20โ2025/26, is where the gap opens. Overs landed 62.8% of the time against 57.5% priced, a gap of +5.3 points, the over returned +4.0% and the under โ17.3%. The market did adjust upwards each era, just not as far as the results moved.
| Seasons | Matches | Over 2.5 | Priced | Gap (pts) | Back over | Back under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005/06โ2011/12 | 266 | 51.1% | 50.3% | +0.8 | โ4.5% | โ7.5% |
| 2012/13โ2018/19 | 266 | 56.8% | 54.1% | +2.7 | +1.1% | โ8.5% |
| 2019/20โ2025/26 | 266 | 62.8% | 57.5% | +5.3 | +4.0% | โ17.3% |
For me this is the most useful table in the file. A club whose goals profile keeps drifting in one direction is a club the market tends to price on the old version of itself.
Exhibit CAway matches carry most of the Spurs pricing gap
The dumbbell sets the margin-free priced chance against what actually landed. Across all matches the gap is +3.0 points. At home it is narrow: 56.1% landed against 55.2% priced, only +0.9 points, which sits comfortably inside the range you would expect from chance.
Away is different. Spurs away matches went over 57.6% of the time against 52.7% priced, a gap of +4.9 points. Notice that the market prices away fixtures as lower scoring than home ones, yet the results came out slightly the other way.
95% ranges shown on the landed rate.
View the data: tottenham over 2.5: priced vs landed
| Priced (margin removed) | Landed | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All matches (798 matches) | 53.9% | 56.9% | ยฑ3.4 |
| Home (399 matches) | 55.2% | 56.1% | ยฑ4.9 |
| Away (399 matches) | 52.7% | 57.6% | ยฑ4.8 |
| Premier League average (7,980 matches) | 51.8% | 52.3% | ยฑ1.1 |
The Premier League row is the control. Across 7,980 matches the league went over 52.3% of the time with 51.8% priced, almost level, so the Tottenham gap is not just the whole market running short on goals.
Exhibit DShopping for the best price changes the returns
This chart compares flat-stake returns at the main price with the best recorded price across bookmakers. Backing every Tottenham over moves from +0.2% to +4.3%, and every under improves from โ11.1% to โ6.6%. Away overs go from +3.7% to +8.1%, while home overs move from โ3.3% to +0.6%.
Unders stay negative in every split, even at the best price. Away unders are the weakest at โ15.1% main and โ11.0% best, which fits everything the earlier charts showed.
Best price = highest recorded price across bookmakers; not always obtainable.
View the data: main price vs best available price
| Main price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Over, home | โ3.3% | +0.6% |
| Over, away | +3.7% | +8.1% |
| Under, home | โ7.1% | โ2.2% |
| Under, away | โ15.1% | โ11.0% |
| Over, all | +0.2% | +4.3% |
| Under, all | โ11.1% | โ6.6% |
My main caveat sits here. These prices come from one bookmaker, taken at different points before kick-off across the years, and the best price was not always obtainable. Returns within a few points of zero can come from chance, so treat this as a model of past pricing, not a system.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Start from the away gap
Spurs away matches landed overs 57.6% of the time against 52.7% priced. When an away price looks cagey, check it against that record before accepting the market's view.
- Weight the recent era
The 2019/20โ2025/26 block went over 62.8% of the time against 57.5% priced. I lean on that era more than the full 21-season average when judging a current price.
- Avoid reflexive Spurs unders
Unders lost money in every era and every split, including โ17.3% in the latest era. Only consider the under when the specific matchup gives a strong reason the history does not cover.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Tottenham matches go over 2.5 goals?
Across 798 Premier League matches from 2005/06 to 2025/26, 56.9% of Tottenham games finished with three or more goals. The wider Premier League rate over the same seasons was 52.3%.
Are Tottenham away games more likely to go over 2.5 than home games?
Slightly. Away matches landed overs 57.6% of the time against 56.1% at home, but the bigger difference is pricing. Away overs ran +4.9 points ahead of the market, against +0.9 points at home.
Has backing Tottenham overs made money?
Backing every over returned +0.2% at the main price and +4.3% at the best price. The latest era returned +4.0% at the main price, but returns this close to zero can be produced by chance.
I'm Freya Linden, and I write about Over/Under 2.5 goals markets, where the value tends to hide in how sides set up rather than in the headline form table.
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