Arsenal 1X2 Stats: Home, Away and Against the Top Sides
Arsenal's 1X2 file: dominant at home, fairly priced overall, and consistently overrated against the strongest sides and whenever they start as underdogs.
- Market
- 1X2
- On file
- Arsenal's Premier League matches with pre-match 1X2 prices, 2005/06–2025/26, 798 matches
- Question
- How often do Arsenal win, draw and lose at home, away and against the strongest Premier League sides, and how has the market priced them?
- E156.4%Arsenal league win rate (798 matches)
- E229.4%Win rate vs top-third sides (priced 37.0%)
- E3−27.5%Return backing Arsenal vs top-third sides
- E4−28.5%Return as underdog (112 matches)
Arsenal are one of the most heavily backed clubs in the Premier League, so I wanted to know whether the prices treat them fairly. This file covers 798 league matches with pre-match 1X2 prices, and it sits alongside my 1X2 betting tips page as the record I check before Arsenal play. The question is simple: how often do they win, draw and lose, and where does the market get them wrong?
The headline is that the overall price is close to right. Arsenal won 56.4% of these matches against a priced chance of 55.2%, and backing them every week returned −5.4% per bet. The split is where it gets interesting. Against top-third sides they are overrated, and against the bottom third at home they have been underrated.
Exhibit AArsenal's home record far outstrips the league's typical home side
Start with the baseline. At home Arsenal won 66.7% of 399 matches and lost only 13.0%, while other Premier League home sides won 44.5%. Away they won 46.1%, well clear of the 29.3% other away sides managed.
Draws are the quieter detail. Arsenal's games ended level 22.2% of the time, slightly less than the 24.4% across the rest of the league, and the prices had them at 23.1%. For a draw backer, that is a small reason to look elsewhere.
League rows: every other Premier League side in the same seasons (7,581 matches).
View the data: arsenal home and away vs the league
| Win | Draw | Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal at home | 66.7% | 20.3% | 13.0% |
| Premier League home sides | 44.5% | 24.5% | 31.0% |
| Arsenal away | 46.1% | 24.1% | 29.8% |
| Premier League away sides | 29.3% | 24.3% | 46.4% |
None of this is a betting edge on its own, because the market already knows Arsenal are strong. A quality side is only useful to me when the price misjudges how strong.
Exhibit BArsenal win far less than priced against top-third opponents
This is the chart I would bookmark. Each row compares the win chance the prices implied with what Arsenal delivered, split by where the opponent finished and by venue. Against top-third sides they won 29.4% of 214 matches against 37.0% priced, a return of −27.5% per bet.
The worst row is top-third opponents away: priced at 29.8%, actual 17.8%. At home against the same tier it was 44.2% priced and 41.1% won, which is a closer miss. Fair odds are simply one divided by the true frequency, so a lower win rate than priced means the quoted odds were too short.
View the data: arsenal vs strong and weak sides: priced vs won
| Priced | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top third – home (107 matches) | 44.2% | 41.1% | ±9.3 |
| Top third – away (107 matches) | 29.8% | 17.8% | ±7.2 |
| Middle third – home (145 matches) | 66.0% | 69.0% | ±7.5 |
| Middle third – away (145 matches) | 49.7% | 49.7% | ±8.1 |
| Bottom third – home (147 matches) | 72.9% | 83.0% | ±6.1 |
| Bottom third – away (147 matches) | 58.5% | 63.3% | ±7.8 |
The opposite holds at the bottom of the table. At home against bottom-third sides Arsenal were priced at 72.9% and won 83.0%, and away against that tier they won 63.3% against 58.5% priced. Against the middle third away, priced and actual both sit at 49.7%, about as fair as a market gets.
Exhibit CHome favourite Arsenal have paid; underdog Arsenal have not
Splitting by role tells the same story from another angle. As home favourites Arsenal won 69.8% of 374 matches against 65.0% priced, returning +3.0% per bet at the standard price and +6.2% at the best price.
As away favourites the return dropped to −7.1%, and as underdogs it fell to −28.5% across 112 matches. Taking the best price helps, with −23.5% for the underdog row, but no amount of shopping around rescues a side that won 19.6% when priced at 25.5%.
Favourite = shorter win price than the opponent. Match counts in brackets.
View the data: arsenal as favourite and as underdog
| Standard price | Best price | |
|---|---|---|
| Favourite at home (374) | +3.0% | +6.2% |
| Favourite away (309) | −7.1% | −3.9% |
| Underdog, home or away (112) | −28.5% | −23.5% |
For context, backing every other Premier League favourite returned −2.6%. Arsenal at home have beaten that benchmark, while Arsenal on the road have fallen short of it.
Exhibit DSeason returns swing hard, with recent years kinder
Backing Arsenal in every league match showed a profit in only 8 of 21 seasons at the standard price. The best was 2022/23 at +17.7% per bet; the worst was 2017/18 at −24.2%, a figure repeated in 2019/20.
The latest season, 2025/26, came in at +0.3% over 38 matches, essentially break-even. These are past results at quoted prices, not a forecast, and squads, coaches and the way prices are set have all changed across two decades.
Gaps in the line are seasons missing from the data.
View the data: backing arsenal to win, season by season
| Return % | |
|---|---|
| 2005/06 | −21.3% |
| 2006/07 | −15.0% |
| 2007/08 | 0.1% |
| 2008/09 | −5.0% |
| 2009/10 | −8.6% |
| 2010/11 | −16.9% |
| 2011/12 | 6.9% |
| 2012/13 | −6.5% |
| 2013/14 | 3.6% |
| 2014/15 | −1.2% |
| 2015/16 | −13.3% |
| 2016/17 | −7.2% |
| 2017/18 | −24.2% |
| 2018/19 | −4.2% |
| 2019/20 | −24.2% |
| 2020/21 | 6.2% |
| 2021/22 | 12.1% |
| 2022/23 | 17.7% |
| 2023/24 | 8.6% |
| 2024/25 | −20.4% |
| 2025/26 | 0.3% |
What I take from the line is that the overall record hides long losing stretches. A bettor needs the patience to stick to the profitable split rather than chase the whole season.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Favour Arsenal at home
As home favourites they returned +3.0% per bet, and +6.2% at the best price. Against bottom-third visitors they won 83.0% when priced at 72.9%.
- Fade them against elite sides
Against top-third opponents they won 29.4% against 37.0% priced. Away to those sides the gap widened to 17.8% won versus 29.8% priced.
- Skip Arsenal as underdogs
Across 112 underdog matches they returned −28.5% per bet. When they are the longer price, look at the other two outcomes or pass.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Arsenal win at home in the Premier League?
Arsenal won 66.7% of 399 home league matches in this data, drawing 20.3% and losing 13.0%. Other Premier League home sides won 44.5% across the same seasons.
Is it profitable to back Arsenal to win every match?
Not overall. Backing Arsenal in every league match returned −5.4% per bet at the standard price and −2.0% at the best price, with a profit in 8 of 21 seasons.
How do Arsenal do against the top Premier League sides?
Against top-third opponents Arsenal won 29.4% of 214 matches when the prices implied 37.0%. Backing them in those games returned −27.5% per bet.
I'm Priya Ellison, a football betting writer focused on 1X2 markets, chasing the gaps between the prices on the board and what actually plays out on the pitch.
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