Lazio HT/FT Stats: Fair Odds for Every Result and How Wins Arrive
A club file on Lazio's Half-Time/Full-Time record: rates and fair odds for all nine results, how wins and defeats take shape by the break, and how price changes things.
- Market
- HT/FT
- On file
- Lazio: 798 Serie A matches with a recorded half-time score, 2005/06–2025/26 (21 seasons); league comparison from 7,180 other Serie A matches in the same seasons
- Question
- What are Lazio's rates and fair odds for each of the nine HT/FT results, and from which half-time positions do its wins and defeats come?
- E132.3%Win/Win rate at home (led at HT and won)
- E215.5%Draw/Win rate, all matches
- E33.10fair odds for Win/Win at home
- E4798Serie A matches analysed
Lazio are a club I watch closely in the HT/FT market, because their matches tend to settle into a shape early. This file covers 798 Serie A matches with a recorded half-time score, from 2005/06–2025/26. It asks two things: how often each of the nine HT/FT results lands, and from which half-time positions the wins and defeats come. Before I open my today's HT/FT tips page on a Lazio matchday, this is where I start.
The short answer is that Lazio are a front-running side. At home they led at the break and went on to win 32.3% of the time, a fair price of 3.10, against 26.1% for other Serie A home sides. They also held 78.6% of 285 half-time leads, ahead of the 73.1% managed by the rest of the league. The first-half lead is the main route to a Lazio win, and the second-half comeback is the minor one.
Exhibit ALazio's nine HT/FT rates and break-even prices, home and away
This table is the core of the file. Each row is one HT/FT result from Lazio's side, with its home and away rate, the fair odds that rate implies, and the Serie A average for other clubs alongside. Fair odds here are simply 1 divided by the rate, so they are break-even prices, not quotes from any market.
Win/Win sits at 32.3% at home (3.10) and 23.8% away (4.20), both above the league's 26.1% and 15.9%. Draw/Win runs at 18.0% at home (5.56) and 13.0% away (7.69). Across every match it lands 15.5% of the time, which is 124 matches and fair odds of 6.45.
| Result | Home | Fair odds | Away | Fair odds | League home | League away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win/Win | 32.3% | 3.10 | 23.8% | 4.20 | 26.1% | 15.9% |
| Draw/Win | 18.0% | 5.56 | 13.0% | 7.69 | 15.4% | 11.1% |
| Lose/Win | 3.3% | 30.30 | 2.8% | 35.71 | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Win/Draw | 5.3% | 18.87 | 4.5% | 22.22 | 5.6% | 5.2% |
| Draw/Draw | 13.3% | 7.52 | 15.0% | 6.67 | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Lose/Draw | 5.3% | 18.87 | 3.3% | 30.30 | 5.2% | 5.6% |
| Win/Lose | 2.3% | 43.48 | 3.3% | 30.30 | 2.1% | 2.6% |
| Draw/Lose | 8.3% | 12.05 | 12.8% | 7.81 | 11.1% | 15.4% |
| Lose/Lose | 12.0% | 8.33 | 21.6% | 4.63 | 15.9% | 26.1% |
Fair odds = 1 ÷ observed rate, no margin. Club perspective: Win/Win = led at HT and won.
What I take from the draw rows is just as useful. Draw/Draw came in at 13.3% at Lazio home games (7.52) against 16.0% for other home sides, so level-level games in Rome have been a little scarcer than the league norm. Away, the Lose/Lose rate of 21.6% (4.63) is still below the 26.1% the league's travelling sides post.
Exhibit BMost Lazio wins and defeats were settled by half-time
This chart splits each full-time result by the half-time state behind it. Of 214 home wins, 60.3% were already ahead at the break and 33.6% were level. Away, 60.1% of 158 wins came from a lead. Only 6.1% of home wins and 7.0% of away wins arrived from behind.
Defeats follow the same pattern in reverse. Of 240 league defeats, 53.3% at home and 57.3% away were already being lost at half-time.
View the data: how lazio's results were built by half-time
| Led at HT | Level at HT | Behind at HT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins, home (n=214) | 60.3% | 33.6% | 6.1% |
| Wins, away (n=158) | 60.1% | 32.9% | 7.0% |
| Draws, home (n=95) | 22.1% | 55.8% | 22.1% |
| Draws, away (n=91) | 19.8% | 65.9% | 14.3% |
| Defeats, home (n=90) | 10.0% | 36.7% | 53.3% |
| Defeats, away (n=150) | 8.7% | 34.0% | 57.3% |
For a bettor, this tells me the half-time position in a Lazio match is usually an honest guide to the full-time result. Turnarounds do happen, but the trailing rows rest on small numbers. I treat them as rough guides rather than something to lean on.
Exhibit CLazio's HT/FT spread shifts sharply with the pre-match price
Here every column is a band of Lazio's own pre-match win price, and each column adds up to the full set of nine results. When Lazio were priced under 1.80, across 250 matches, they went Win/Win 42.4% of the time and Draw/Draw just 12.4%.
At 3.00+, across 230 matches, the pattern flips. Win/Win falls to 12.2%, Draw/Draw rises to 15.2% and Lose/Lose climbs to 32.2%.
Match counts in brackets.
View the data: lazio ht/ft results by pre-match price
| Under 1.80 (250) | 1.80–2.19 (131) | 2.20–2.99 (187) | 3.00+ (230) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win/Win | 42.4% | 31.3% | 26.2% | 12.2% |
| Draw/Win | 20.8% | 22.1% | 12.3% | 8.7% |
| Lose/Win | 3.6% | 2.3% | 4.8% | 1.3% |
| Win/Draw | 4.4% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| Draw/Draw | 12.4% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 15.2% |
| Lose/Draw | 5.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.8% |
| Win/Lose | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% |
| Draw/Lose | 5.2% | 7.6% | 10.7% | 17.8% |
| Lose/Lose | 4.0% | 9.9% | 19.8% | 32.2% |
The useful point for me is that the 1X2 price already does much of the work. A short-priced Lazio is a strong Win/Win candidate on this record. A long-priced Lazio is more often behind at the break, and it tends to stay behind.
Exhibit DLazio's Win/Win rate has swung widely from season to season
The line tracks the share of league matches Lazio led at half-time and won, set against the Serie A average. The best season was 2014/15 at 39.5% and the lowest was 2007/08 at 18.4%. Lazio have sat above the league line far more often than below it.
The most recent season in the data, 2025/26, shows 18.4% against a Serie A average of 21.8%. That puts it back at the bottom of the club's range.
About 38 matches per season, so single seasons swing widely.
View the data: lazio win/win rate, season by season
| Lazio Win/Win | Serie A average Win/Win | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 23.7% | 22.5% |
| 2006/07 | 36.8% | 19.4% |
| 2007/08 | 18.4% | 20.6% |
| 2008/09 | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| 2009/10 | 18.4% | 20.0% |
| 2010/11 | 31.6% | 20.2% |
| 2011/12 | 18.4% | 20.9% |
| 2012/13 | 36.8% | 18.0% |
| 2013/14 | 26.3% | 23.4% |
| 2014/15 | 39.5% | 19.9% |
| 2015/16 | 26.3% | 21.6% |
| 2016/17 | 28.9% | 22.9% |
| 2017/18 | 31.6% | 23.1% |
| 2018/19 | 34.2% | 19.2% |
| 2019/20 | 28.9% | 20.9% |
| 2020/21 | 34.2% | 21.9% |
| 2021/22 | 31.6% | 23.4% |
| 2022/23 | 31.6% | 21.1% |
| 2023/24 | 21.1% | 20.9% |
| 2024/25 | 34.2% | 18.6% |
| 2025/26 | 18.4% | 21.8% |
This is the caveat I keep in mind with the whole file. These are historical rates gathered over many seasons, and squads and coaches change, so a pattern that held for years can fade. With about 38 matches a season, one campaign can drift a long way from the long-run figure.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Anchor on 3.10 at home
My break-even price for Lazio Win/Win at home is 3.10, from a 32.3% rate. Anything shorter needs a reason beyond the history.
- Read the 1X2 price first
Under 1.80 Lazio went Win/Win 42.4% of the time, but at 3.00+ it was only 12.2%. Check the match price before choosing an HT/FT line.
- Weigh the current season
In 2025/26 Win/Win dropped to 18.4% against the league's 21.8%. I give recent form some weight against the long-run home rate of 32.3%.
Questions bettors ask
What are the fair odds for Lazio Win/Win in HT/FT?
From 798 Serie A matches, fair odds for Lazio Win/Win are 3.10 at home (32.3%) and 4.20 away (23.8%). These are break-even prices implied by the club's record, not bookmaker quotes.
How often do Lazio draw at half-time and then win?
Lazio went Draw/Win in 15.5% of all league matches, 124 in total, which gives fair odds of 6.45. The rate is 18.0% at home and 13.0% away.
Do Lazio usually hold a half-time lead?
Lazio held 78.6% of 285 half-time leads to win, compared with 73.1% for other Serie A clubs in the same seasons.
I'm Nadia Whitcombe, and I focus on Half-Time/Full-Time markets, where you can't just ask who wins but have to picture how the ninety minutes actually unfolds.
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