Athletic Bilbao HT/FT Stats: Away Draw/Draws and Few Late Winners
Athletic Bilbao on the road often stay level through both halves, and rarely find a late winner. At San Mamés, a half-time lead usually holds.
- Market
- HT/FT
- On file
- Athletic Bilbao: 760 La Liga matches with a recorded half-time score, 2005/06–2025/26 (20 seasons); league comparison from 6,840 other La Liga matches in the same seasons
- Question
- How often do Athletic Bilbao's away matches stay level from half-time to full-time, and how rarely does the club turn a level or losing break into a win?
- E119.2%Draw/Draw rate away from home
- E219.0%away wins after being level at half-time
- E331.6%Win/Win rate at home (led at HT and won)
- E4760La Liga matches analysed
Athletic Bilbao are a club I check closely before any half-time/full-time bet, because their matches tend to keep the same shape after the break. The question for this file is simple. How often do their away games stay level from half-time to full-time, and how rarely do they turn a level or losing break into a win?
The answer from 760 La Liga matches is clear enough to use. Away from home, Draw/Draw lands in 19.2% of matches, above the league away average of 15.1%. When Athletic are level at half-time on the road, they go on to win only 19.0%. This file sits alongside my double result tips page as the background I read before Athletic play.
Exhibit AAthletic's nine HT/FT results split by venue
This grid shows every HT/FT outcome at each venue, with each venue adding up to 100%. At home the most common result is Win/Win at 31.6% of 380 matches. Away it is Lose/Lose at 23.7% of 380, with Draw/Draw close behind.
Late swings are rare in both directions. Win/Lose happens in only 1.1% of home matches and 2.4% away. Lose/Win comes in at 2.9% at home (11 matches) and 2.1% away (8).
380 home and 380 away league matches. Row = half-time state, column = full-time result.
View the data: athletic: all nine ht/ft results, home and away
| Home: won | Home: drew | Home: lost | Away: won | Away: drew | Away: lost | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Led at HT | 31.6% | 5.5% | 1.1% | 15.8% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
| Level at HT | 15.3% | 15.8% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 19.2% | 18.9% |
| Behind at HT | 2.9% | 4.2% | 13.2% | 2.1% | 5.0% | 23.7% |
What I take from this is that Athletic matches tend to settle into a pattern and stay there. The second half usually confirms the first rather than reversing it, and that is the kind of club where HT/FT bets on the same result at both points earn their keep.
Exhibit BAthletic win less often than the league from level away
This chart compares how often Athletic win from a level or losing break with the La Liga average. When behind, they edge the league slightly: 14.3% at home (n=77, league 11.1%) and 6.8% away (n=117, league 5.6%). Those trailing rows are small samples, so I read them as rough guides.
The row I watch is level at half-time away. Athletic win 19.0% of those 179 matches, against 26.0% for the league, a clear shortfall. At home, from level, they sit just under the league at 36.7% against 38.4%.
95% ranges on the club rate; rows under 100 matches are wide.
View the data: athletic wins from level or behind at half-time
| La Liga average | Athletic | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Behind at HT, home (n=77) | 11.1% | 14.3% | ±7.8 |
| Behind at HT, away (n=117) | 5.6% | 6.8% | ±4.6 |
| Level at HT, home (n=158) | 38.4% | 36.7% | ±7.5 |
| Level at HT, away (n=179) | 26.0% | 19.0% | ±5.7 |
So on the road Athletic do not often push on from level. If you take Draw/Win away, the club's record gives you fewer winning games than a typical La Liga side would, and the fair price, one divided by the rate, should be longer to match.
Exhibit CPre-match price shapes Athletic's HT/FT outcomes
Here the matches are grouped by Athletic's own pre-match win price from a major bookmaker. As favourites under 1.80 they went Win/Win 40.7% of the time across 162 matches. Even in that band, Draw/Draw still came up 18.5%.
At 3.00+ the picture flips. Across 260 matches Win/Win falls to 9.2% and Lose/Lose rises to 33.5%, while Draw/Draw holds at 15.4%.
Match counts in brackets.
View the data: athletic ht/ft results by pre-match price
| Under 1.80 (162) | 1.80–2.19 (136) | 2.20–2.99 (202) | 3.00+ (260) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win/Win | 40.7% | 37.5% | 19.3% | 9.2% |
| Draw/Win | 11.7% | 16.2% | 15.8% | 7.3% |
| Lose/Win | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Win/Draw | 7.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% |
| Draw/Draw | 18.5% | 17.6% | 19.3% | 15.4% |
| Lose/Draw | 3.7% | 3.7% | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Win/Lose | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% |
| Draw/Lose | 6.2% | 8.1% | 15.3% | 23.1% |
| Lose/Lose | 7.4% | 9.6% | 13.9% | 33.5% |
The steady Draw/Draw share across every price band is the part I find most useful. It means the level-level result is part of how Athletic play, not just a product of being evenly matched.
Exhibit DAthletic's Win/Win rate swings season to season
This line tracks the Win/Win rate each season against the La Liga average. The best year was 2023/24 at 36.8%, and the lowest was 2005/06 at 5.3%. There is no 2006/07 data, so that season is missing from the line.
In 2025/26 Athletic were at 18.4% against the league's 20.8%, a dip from their stronger recent years. With about 38 matches a season, single seasons move a lot, so I give the long-run figures more weight than any one year.
About 38 matches per season, so single seasons swing widely.
View the data: athletic win/win rate, season by season
| Athletic Win/Win | La Liga average Win/Win | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06 | 5.3% | 21.8% |
| 2007/08 | 23.7% | 22.7% |
| 2008/09 | 18.4% | 21.2% |
| 2009/10 | 31.6% | 21.9% |
| 2010/11 | 28.9% | 23.7% |
| 2011/12 | 15.8% | 23.7% |
| 2012/13 | 15.8% | 22.2% |
| 2013/14 | 34.2% | 23.7% |
| 2014/15 | 26.3% | 24.7% |
| 2015/16 | 28.9% | 23.8% |
| 2016/17 | 26.3% | 22.4% |
| 2017/18 | 23.7% | 23.8% |
| 2018/19 | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| 2019/20 | 26.3% | 19.0% |
| 2020/21 | 15.8% | 20.5% |
| 2021/22 | 23.7% | 19.2% |
| 2022/23 | 31.6% | 20.6% |
| 2023/24 | 36.8% | 21.1% |
| 2024/25 | 23.7% | 19.7% |
| 2025/26 | 18.4% | 20.8% |
The main caveat for this whole file sits here. These are historical rates rather than a system, and squads and coaches change, so a pattern from past seasons can fade.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Respect the away draw
Draw/Draw came up in 19.2% of Athletic's away matches against a league away average of 15.1%, so check whether the price on it reflects that.
- Be wary of away Draw/Win
From level at half-time away, Athletic won only 19.0% against 26.0% for the league. Demand a longer price than you would for an average side.
- Back home leads to hold
Athletic turned only 1.1% of home matches from a half-time lead into a defeat, and held 78.6% of 229 half-time leads overall.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Athletic Bilbao go Draw/Draw away from home?
Across 380 away La Liga matches, Draw/Draw landed 19.2% of the time. The La Liga away average for the same seasons was 15.1%.
Do Athletic Bilbao hold half-time leads?
Mostly, yes. They held 78.6% of 229 half-time leads to win, against 75.6% for other La Liga clubs, and Win/Lose happened in just 1.1% of their home matches.
How often do Athletic Bilbao come from behind at half-time to win?
Rarely. Lose/Win happened in 2.9% of home matches (11) and 2.1% away (8). When trailing, they won 14.3% at home and 6.8% away.
I'm Nadia Whitcombe, and I focus on Half-Time/Full-Time markets, where you can't just ask who wins but have to picture how the ninety minutes actually unfolds.
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