Athletic Bilbao Over/Under Stats: The Short Over Prices That Missed
Athletic Bilbao sit near the bottom of La Liga's over 2.5 table, and the market has repeatedly priced their short overs too generously.
- Market
- Over/Under
- On file
- Athletic Bilbao: 760 La Liga matches, 2005/06–2025/26 (20 seasons); league comparison from 7,600 La Liga matches in the same seasons
- Question
- How often do Athletic Bilbao league matches go over 2.5 goals compared with the price, especially when the over is short, and how have the returns moved by era?
- E145.1%of 760 Athletic Bilbao matches went over 2.5
- E249.5%La Liga over 2.5 rate, same seasons
- E347.6%over 2.5 chance priced by the market
- E4−1.1%return backing every under 2.5
Athletic Bilbao have a reputation for intensity, and intensity can look like goals on paper. My question for this file was simpler: how often do their league matches actually clear 2.5, how does that compare with the price, and has the gap moved over time? The record covers 760 La Liga matches across 20 seasons.
The headline answer is that 45.1% of those matches went over 2.5, against a market-implied 47.6% and a league rate of 49.5%. The over has run behind its price, and it fell furthest behind when it was shortest. If you want my day-to-day picks, my free over/under tips page carries them. This file is the background reading I check before an Athletic match.
Exhibit AAthletic rank 13 of 15 for La Liga overs
Before looking at prices, I like to know where a club sits among its peers. Among the 15 clubs with the most La Liga matches in these seasons, Athletic come in 13 of 15 at 45.1%. Only Osasuna at 43.9% and Getafe at 41.7% are lower, while Barcelona top the group at 65.3%.
The La Liga average of 49.5% sits comfortably above Athletic, so this is a club whose matches run below the league norm for goals.
The 15 clubs with the most La Liga matches in these seasons; minimum 494 matches.
View the data: athletic among the la liga regulars
| Over 2.5 rate in each club's league matches, same seasons | |
|---|---|
| Barcelona | 65.3% |
| Real Madrid | 63.3% |
| Valencia | 51.7% |
| Levante | 51.6% |
| Villarreal | 51.4% |
| Real Sociedad | 50.8% |
| Sevilla | 50.5% |
| La Liga average | 49.5% |
| Celta Vigo | 48.6% |
| Real Betis | 48.3% |
| Espanyol | 47.5% |
| Atlético Madrid | 47.5% |
| Mallorca | 47.2% |
| Athletic | 45.1% |
| Osasuna | 43.9% |
| Getafe | 41.7% |
What I take from this is that Athletic belong in the low-scoring group. When I see an over priced as if this were a mid-table attacking side, that ranking is the first thing I remember.
Exhibit BTwo goals is the most common Athletic scoreline total
The exact-goals chart shows where the 2.5 line actually bites. The most common total in Athletic matches is 2 goals, at 27.2%, ahead of 3 goals at 22.2%. Across La Liga the figures are 24.5% and 22.2%, so the three-goal share is identical, but Athletic carry noticeably more two-goal games.
That extra weight sits just below the line, which is exactly where an over bet dies. Goalless matches make up 8.3%, and five or more goals only 10.7%.
View the data: exact total goals in a match
| Share of Athletic league matches | |
|---|---|
| 0 goals | 8.3% |
| 1 goal | 19.3% |
| 2 goals | 27.2% |
| 3 goals | 22.2% |
| 4 goals | 12.2% |
| 5 goals | 6.7% |
| 6+ goals | 3.9% |
The extra two-goal games, rather than a pile of goalless draws, are where the gap to the league comes from. That is a quieter kind of under, and it is easy to underrate if you only look at headline clean sheets.
Exhibit CShort over prices landed well below their implied chance
This is the chart the file is built around. When the over 2.5 was priced under 1.84, the market implied 57.4% and it landed 49.7% across 183 matches. At 2.19 or longer it implied 39.5% and landed 34.7% across 199 matches. In both the shortest and longest bands, the over came in below its price.
The exception is the 1.84–2.00 band, where Athletic matches went over 55.0% against 49.2% priced, a +5.8 point swing in the other direction. Each band carries a range of roughly seven points either way, so I treat that middle band with caution rather than as an edge.
Bands = over 2.5 decimal odds, four near-equal groups of the club's matches.
View the data: over 2.5 by the over price
| Priced (margin removed) | Landed | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.84 (183 matches) | 57.4% | 49.7% | ±7.2 |
| 1.84–2.00 (191 matches) | 49.2% | 55.0% | ±7.1 |
| 2.01–2.18 (187 matches) | 45.1% | 41.7% | ±7.1 |
| 2.19+ (199 matches) | 39.5% | 34.7% | ±6.6 |
My reading is that the market's strongest opinions on goals in Athletic matches have been its weakest. When the book is confident in an over, the club's tendency to settle into two-goal games has pulled the result back.
Exhibit DBacking the under improved steadily across three eras
Returns tell the same story with a time stamp. In 2005/06–2011/12 the over landed 50.0% against 49.0% priced, and both sides lost money, with the under at −9.2%. In 2012/13–2018/19 the under edged to +0.6%, and in 2019/20–2025/26 it reached +4.0% while the over fell to −15.5%, with overs landing just 39.5% against 44.4% priced.
Across all seasons, backing every under returned −1.1%, while backing every over lost far more heavily.
View the data: returns era by era
| Back over 2.5 | Back under 2.5 | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2011/12 (228) | −5.4% | −9.2% |
| 2012/13–2018/19 (266) | −11.0% | +0.6% |
| 2019/20–2025/26 (266) | −15.5% | +4.0% |
| All seasons | −10.9% | −1.1% |
The main caveat is that these are one bookmaker's prices, and the timing of those prices changed over the years. Returns this close to zero can come from chance, so I read the drift as a tendency to respect, not a system to run blind.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Question short over prices
Under 1.84 the over landed 49.7% against 57.4% priced. A short over in an Athletic match needs a specific reason beyond reputation before I touch it.
- Respect the two-goal weight
Two goals is the most common total at 27.2%, above the league's 24.5%. Expect plenty of matches to finish one goal short of an over.
- Weight the recent era
In 2019/20–2025/26 overs landed 39.5% against 44.4% priced. Recent seasons lean more firmly towards the under than the full record does.
Questions bettors ask
How often do Athletic Bilbao matches go over 2.5 goals?
Across 760 La Liga matches in this record, 45.1% finished with three or more goals. The La Liga average over the same seasons was 49.5%.
Is backing the under in Athletic Bilbao matches profitable?
Backing every under at flat stakes returned −1.1% across all seasons, though the most recent era returned +4.0%. Figures this close to zero can be produced by chance.
What is the most common total goals in Athletic Bilbao games?
Two goals is the most common total, at 27.2% of matches, followed by three goals at 22.2%.
I'm Freya Linden, and I write about Over/Under 2.5 goals markets, where the value tends to hide in how sides set up rather than in the headline form table.
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