Chelsea BTTS Stats: Big Six Meetings, Home and Away Splits
Chelsea sit close to a coin flip for Both Teams To Score. The useful edges show up in rival meetings, bottom-third opponents and how much more open recent seasons have become.
- Market
- BTTS
- On file
- Chelsea Premier League matches 2005/06–2025/26, 798 matches in 21 seasons; league baseline 7,980 Premier League matches in the same seasons
- Question
- How often do both teams score in Chelsea league matches, and how does that change against the other Big Six clubs, by venue and over time?
- E149.4%BTTS rate in 798 Premier League matches
- E251.9%BTTS in 210 league games vs the other Big Six
- E348.4%BTTS rate in Chelsea's home matches
- E450.4%BTTS rate in Chelsea's away matches
Chelsea have a reputation for big, open games, so I wanted to test that against the full record. Across 798 Premier League matches from 2005/06–2025/26, both teams scored in 49.4%, slightly below the league average of 51.3% over the same seasons. That is the base rate I start from before any Chelsea fixture, and it sits alongside the club files on my both teams to score tips page.
My headline answer is that Chelsea are close to even money in this market, but the splits are not flat. Meetings with the other Big Six push the rate up to 51.9%. Away matches run at 50.4% against 48.4% at home, and the most recent era is the most open of the four. The main limit is that the match history holds no BTTS prices, so this file shows hit rates and fair odds rather than betting returns, and past rates are a starting point rather than a forecast.
Exhibit ALiverpool meetings produce BTTS more than any other rival
Against Liverpool, both teams scored in 59.5% of 42 league meetings. Each side found the net in 76.2% of those games, which is about as balanced as a head-to-head gets. Manchester United come next at 54.8%, and that fixture is evenly split too, with each side scoring 71.4% of the time.
Tottenham is the odd one. The fixture averages 2.86 goals per game, the highest of the five, yet BTTS sits at only 52.4%. Chelsea scored in 85.7% of those meetings while Spurs managed 59.5%, so a lot of the goals came from one side. Total goals and BTTS measure different things, and this is the clearest example of that in the file.
| Opponent | Matches | BTTS | Chelsea scored | Opp. scored | Goals/game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 42 | 59.5% | 76.2% | 76.2% | 2.45 |
| Manchester United | 42 | 54.8% | 71.4% | 71.4% | 2.40 |
| Tottenham | 42 | 52.4% | 85.7% | 59.5% | 2.86 |
| Arsenal | 42 | 50.0% | 73.8% | 66.7% | 2.74 |
| Manchester City | 42 | 42.9% | 66.7% | 73.8% | 2.60 |
| All of these | 210 | 51.9% | 74.8% | 69.5% | 2.61 |
Manchester City sit bottom at 42.9% despite 2.60 goals per game, and in this fixture Chelsea were the side more likely to fail to score, finding the net in 66.7% of meetings. Each row covers only 42 matches, so I treat these numbers as leanings. Across all 210 meetings, though, the 51.9% rate still sits a little above Chelsea's overall figure.
Exhibit BBottom-third opponents flip the home and away picture
Splitting opponents by where they finished in a rebuilt table gives me something more useful than the rival rows, because even the smallest cell holds 109 matches. Against top-third sides, BTTS landed in 53.2% of 218 matches. The home figure of 55.0% is the highest home cell on the chart, which suggests good teams usually score at Stamford Bridge.
Venue matters most against the bottom third. At home BTTS landed only 41.8%, which tells me Chelsea have tended to keep weaker sides quiet in London. Away against the same type of opponent, the rate climbs to 56.2%, the highest cell on the whole chart.
Thirds of each season's final table. Smallest cell: 109 matches.
View the data: chelsea btts by opponent strength
| Home | Away | All | |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs top third | 55.0% | 51.4% | 53.2% |
| vs middle third | 50.0% | 43.8% | 46.9% |
| vs bottom third | 41.8% | 56.2% | 49.0% |
The middle third is the lowest group overall at 46.9%, and its away figure of 43.8% is the lowest cell on the chart. If I had to name the Chelsea fixture type that leans towards No, it would be mid-table opposition away from home.
Exhibit CChelsea BTTS rates have climbed steadily era by era
This is the chart I point to when someone quotes Chelsea's long-run figure at me. In 2005/06–2009/10, BTTS landed in just 42.1% of home matches and 35.8% away, from a side that rarely conceded on the road. By 2020/21–2025/26 those figures had risen to 52.6% and 56.1%.
The home rate has gone up in every period. Away matches have run ahead of home in each of the last three eras, and that reversal after the first era is why the all-time away figure ends up above the home one.
View the data: chelsea btts at home and away, by era
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| 2005/06–2009/10 (95 home / 95 away) | 42.1% | 35.8% |
| 2010/11–2014/15 (95 home / 95 away) | 48.4% | 54.7% |
| 2015/16–2019/20 (95 home / 95 away) | 49.5% | 53.7% |
| 2020/21–2025/26 (114 home / 114 away) | 52.6% | 56.1% |
That early stretch drags the 21-season average down to 49.4%. For a Chelsea match now, I lean on the recent era rather than the full average.
Exhibit DMost Chelsea BTTS outcomes also clear 2.5 goals
This chart lays the two goal markets on top of each other. 'BTTS and Over 2.5' landed in 39.6% of Chelsea matches, which gives fair odds of 2.53. The only BTTS score under the line, the 1-1, came in 9.8%. Over 2.5 landed in 53.5% of matches overall, ahead of BTTS at 49.4%.
The gap comes from scores like 3-0 and 4-0. In 13.9% of Chelsea matches the game went over 2.5 without both sides scoring, and that happened more at home (15.5%) than away (12.3%). Away from home, the combined BTTS-and-over result rises to 40.6%, from 38.6% at home.
View the data: btts and over 2.5 in chelsea matches
| BTTS & Over 2.5 | BTTS & Under 2.5 (1-1) | No BTTS & Over 2.5 | No BTTS & Under 2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home (399) | 38.6% | 9.8% | 15.5% | 36.1% |
| Away (399) | 40.6% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 37.3% |
| All (798) | 39.6% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 36.7% |
For a Chelsea home game against a weak side, I would look at overs before BTTS. Away from home, the two markets line up much more closely.
Dossier verdict
Case closed- Start from recent eras
Use the 2020/21–2025/26 rates of 52.6% at home and 56.1% away as your working base, not the 49.4% all-time figure, which the early seasons pull down.
- Split weak opponents by venue
Bottom-third sides saw BTTS land 41.8% of the time at Chelsea but 56.2% at home to Chelsea. The same type of opponent needs a different read depending on where the game is played.
- Weigh the combination price
Only 9.8% of Chelsea matches finished 1-1, so most BTTS results also went over 2.5. Compare any price on the combination with the fair 2.53 implied by its 39.6% hit rate.
Questions bettors ask
How often do both teams score in Chelsea matches?
Across 798 Premier League matches from 2005/06–2025/26, BTTS landed in 49.4%, slightly below the league average of 51.3%. The most recent era runs higher, at 52.6% at home and 56.1% away.
Which Big Six fixture has the highest BTTS rate for Chelsea?
Liverpool, with both teams scoring in 59.5% of 42 league meetings. Manchester City is the lowest at 42.9%, even though those games average 2.60 goals.
Is BTTS more likely in Chelsea home or away games?
Slightly more likely away, at 50.4% against 48.4% at home. The gap is widest against bottom-third sides: 56.2% away and 41.8% at home.
I'm Rosa Whitman, a betting writer who's narrowed right down to Both Teams To Score markets, where patient research into goal patterns tends to pay off.
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